"Unclassified Report: Emerging Dangers in the U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2025 Threat Briefing"

 

✩ DIA Director’s Unclassified Intelligence Briefing | U.S. National Security 2025

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Introduction 

The Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) hearings, conducted on March 25 and 26, 2025, at Hart 216, provided a sobering examination of the multifaceted threats confronting the United States in an increasingly volatile global landscape. Chaired by Senator Mark Warner and Vice Chairman Marco Rubio, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence heard testimony from key figures, including Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Director of National Intelligence Ail Haynes, CIA Director Bill Burns, FBI Director Chris Ray, NSA Director General Timothy Hawk, and Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and Research Brett Homegrum. The unclassified ATA report, presented during these sessions, outlined a world grappling with strategic competition from authoritarian powers, the transformative yet risky potential of emerging technologies, ongoing regional conflicts with global ramifications, and domestic vulnerabilities, particularly at the U.S. southern border. The hearings emphasized the interconnected nature of these challenges, urging robust intelligence capabilities and sustained U.S. leadership to safeguard national security and democratic values.

Director Haynes opened the hearings by categorizing threats into three areas: strategic competition with authoritarian regimes like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea; transnational challenges such as cybercrime, terrorism, and narcotics trafficking; and regional conflicts with far-reaching implications, notably in Ukraine and the Middle East. The testimony highlighted China’s techno-authoritarian ambitions, Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine, Iran’s destabilizing proxy networks, and North Korea’s growing collaboration with these actors. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and cyber capabilities, were identified as double-edged swords, capable of advancing innovation but also enabling adversaries to conduct misinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, and potentially develop bioweapons. The hearings also addressed domestic concerns, with FBI Director Ray noting the border’s role in facilitating fentanyl trafficking, illegal migration, and potential terrorist infiltration, including concerns about Chinese nationals’ activities. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act was a focal point, with debates over balancing its critical role in intelligence collection with privacy protections for Americans.

The discussions underscored a pivotal moment in global security, where adversaries exploit asymmetrical tools to challenge U.S. dominance. From Russia’s belief that time favors its strategy in Ukraine to China’s efforts to dominate global technology, the intelligence community stressed the urgency of legislative action, international partnerships, and technological investment to counter these threats. The Gaza conflict’s humanitarian toll and its potential to inspire global terrorism further highlighted the need for diplomatic solutions. As Chairman Warner emphasized, the intelligence community’s role in speaking truth to power is vital, ensuring policymakers are equipped to navigate this complex threat environment without succumbing to partisan divisions.

Table of Contents

1. Strategic Competition with Authoritarian Powers
2. Emerging Technologies and Their Dual-Use Risks
3. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Critical Juncture
4. Middle East Instability: Gaza and Iranian Proxies
5. U.S. Border Security: Fentanyl, Migration, and Terrorism
6. Section 702 and Privacy Concerns
7. Conclusion

1. Strategic Competition with Authoritarian Powers 

The 2025 ATA hearings, as articulated by Director Ail Haynes, identified strategic competition with authoritarian powers—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—as a primary threat to the rules-based international order established post-World War II. Haynes stated, “The United States faces an increasingly complex and interconnected threat environment characterized by accelerating strategic competition with major authoritarian powers that are actively working to undermine the rules-based order.” This competition is marked by these nations’ collaborative efforts, which Vice Chairman Rubio described as an informal partnership aimed at weakening U.S. influence: “They are increasingly partnering with each other on selected topics… because they all share one goal: to weaken America, weaken our alliances.”

China’s ambitions under President Xi Jinping were a central focus. Haynes noted, “President Xi continues to envision China as a leading power on the world stage… Chinese leaders believe it is essential to project power globally to resist U.S. pressure.” Despite economic challenges—youth unemployment at 14.9%, a contracting property market, and massive local debts—China is doubling down on technological self-reliance. The hearings highlighted China’s efforts to dominate industries like telecommunications (Huawei), social media (TikTok), and genomics (BGI), often through government subsidies and intellectual property theft. Senator Rubio raised concerns about TikTok’s algorithm, owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company beholden to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He stated, “The algorithm that powers [TikTok] is controlled by a company in China that must do whatever the Chinese Communist Party tells them to do… If they said, ‘We want you to change your algorithm so Americans start seeing videos that hurt this candidate,’ ByteDance would have to do it.”

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, led by President Putin, was another critical issue. Haynes explained, “President Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues unabated… Putin continues to judge that time is on his side.” The hearings detailed Russia’s staggering losses—300,000 casualties and thousands of tanks—yet its increased defense spending and nuclear modernization signal a long-term challenge to NATO. Senator Rubio noted, “Putin believes great powers have a right to control countries around their borders as buffer states… That is one of the reasons why he invades Ukraine.” Russia’s growing ties with China, Iran, and North Korea, including ammunition purchases, were highlighted as undermining non-proliferation norms.

Iran’s orchestration of proxy attacks through groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis was a significant concern. Haynes confirmed, “Iran was able to flex the network’s military capabilities in the aftermath of Hamas’s attack on October 7th, orchestrating anti-Israel and anti-U.S. attacks.” Iran’s sanctions evasion, through ghost fleet vessels and Chinese refineries, further fuels its destabilizing activities. North Korea’s aggression, empowered by Russia and Iran, includes cyber-enabled ransomware attacks, as Director Ray noted: “I don’t know what percentage of their economy is powered by ransomware attacks and cyber hacking, but it’s substantial.” The intelligence community stressed the need for sustained U.S. leadership to counter these powers’ efforts to reshape the global order, emphasizing alliances and technological investment to maintain a strategic edge.

2. Emerging Technologies: Opportunities and Threats 

The transformative potential of emerging technologies—AI, biotechnology, and cyber capabilities—was a key focus of the 2025 ATA hearings, with Chairman Warner noting, “The nature of strategic competition today revolves as much around non-traditional tools and the ability to harness emerging dual-use technologies.” These technologies offer immense opportunities but also pose significant risks, enabling adversaries to project power asymmetrically. Director Haynes warned, “Trends in new and emerging technologies… are stoking instability and making it more challenging for us to forecast developments.”

AI’s dual-use nature was a recurring theme. Director Ray highlighted its risks: “Artificial intelligence can accelerate software development, but can also accelerate malicious cyber attacks or the spread of misinformation.” The hearings cited specific examples, such as Russia’s 2022 deepfake video of Ukrainian President Zelensky urging surrender, countered with U.S. assistance, and al-Qaeda’s AI-generated videos inspiring lone-wolf attacks. Senator Gillibrand referenced a study finding that AI image generators produce election disinformation in 41% of cases, prompting Director Haynes to note, “With the advent of generative AI, states and non-state actors no longer need to master a language to create potentially believable false content.” The NSA’s AI Security Center, as General Hawk explained, aims to “communicate to companies the threats that they will have of their technology and how it will be employed,” emphasizing ethical standards and threat mitigation.

Biotechnology’s potential to cure diseases or create pathogens was another concern. Haynes stated, “Biotechnology advancements may lead one day to curing cancer… but also may create new pathogens or even genetically engineered super soldiers.” The hearings noted China and Russia’s efforts to undermine trust in U.S. biotechnology, with the ATA report stating, “China and Russia have proven adept at manipulating the information space to reduce trust in countermeasures and U.S. biotechnology.” Control over rare earth minerals, critical for energy technologies, was also highlighted as a strategic battleground, with China seeking dominance.

Cyber threats, particularly ransomware, were a major focus. Director Ray noted, “We have seen a massive increase in the number of ransomware attacks globally, which went up roughly 74% in 2023… U.S. entities were the most heavily targeted.” Russia-based LockBit was identified as a leading perpetrator, responsible for nearly a quarter of global attacks. General Hawk emphasized NSA-FBI collaboration to counter China’s intellectual property theft, particularly in semiconductors, stating, “We have done a series of unclassified advisories… to illuminate that threat in a way that allows us to get unity of action.” The hearings underscored the need for enhanced public-private partnerships and robust intelligence tools like Section 702 to address these evolving threats, ensuring the U.S. remains a leader in technological innovation while mitigating risks.

3. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Defining Moment 

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now over two years old, was described as a defining moment during the 2025 ATA hearings. DIA Director Kruse addressed nuclear proliferation risks and the conflict’s global implications, stating in the open session that the prolonged war poses “ongoing challenges inherent to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.” CIA Director Burns, reflecting on his tenth visit to Ukraine, emphasized the war’s critical juncture: “We’re at a profoundly important crossroads for Ukraine, for European security, and for long-term American interests around the world.” He outlined two paths: with supplemental U.S. aid, Ukraine could hold its lines through 2024, exact costs on Russia, and regain offensive initiative; without it, Ukraine risks significant losses, as seen in Avdiivka’s fall due to ammunition shortages.

Burns detailed Russia’s losses: “315,000 plus dead and wounded… the destruction of two-thirds of their pre-war tank inventory.” Yet, Director Haynes noted, “President Putin is increasing defense spending in Russia… reversing his long-standing reluctance to devote a high percentage of GDP to the military.” Putin’s belief that “time is on his side” drives his strategy, as Haynes explained, “He continues to see NATO enlargement and Western support to Ukraine as reinforcing his long-held belief that the United States and Europe seek to restrict Russian power.” The hearings highlighted Russia’s collaboration with China, Iran, and North Korea, with Haynes stating, “Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-sought concessions… with the potential to undermine non-proliferation norms.”

The conflict’s broader implications were a key concern. Burns noted, “Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO… is a direct consequence of Putin’s aggression.” Senator Heinrich asked about lessons adversaries might draw from U.S. support for Ukraine, with Burns warning, “If we’re seen to be walking away from support for Ukraine, it’s going to feed doubts amongst our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, stoking the ambitions of the Chinese leadership in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea.” The intelligence community urged Congress to pass supplemental aid, with Burns calling its absence “a massive and historic mistake” that could undermine U.S. credibility globally. The hearings emphasized the need to support Ukraine to counter Putin’s ambitions and maintain a strong negotiating position, ensuring a sovereign Ukraine anchored in Western institutions.

4. Middle East Tensions: Gaza and Iranian Influence 

The Middle East’s instability, particularly the Gaza conflict and Iran’s proxy networks, was a major focus of the 2025 ATA hearings. Director Burns addressed the crisis sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, followed by Israel’s incursion costing an estimated 30,000 Palestinian lives. He stated, “There are a lot of innocent civilians in Gaza who are in desperate conditions right now… I think we have to find a practical goal and pursue it relentlessly.” Burns outlined a proposed ceasefire deal: “What’s on the table right now is a potential agreement that has three main elements: the return of about 40 hostages… a ceasefire of at least 6 weeks… and a major surge in humanitarian assistance.”

Iran’s role in orchestrating proxy attacks was a key concern. Director Haynes confirmed, “Iran was able to flex the network’s military capabilities… orchestrating anti-Israel and anti-U.S. attacks from Lebanon to the Bab el-Mandab Strait.” The Houthis, she noted, “entered the war and were willing to do so without Iran acting first, becoming one of the most aggressive actors,” while Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq and Syria target U.S. forces. Senator Casey questioned Iran’s sanctions evasion, with Haynes stating, “We’re very involved… identifying where we see sanctions evasion, opportunities for additional targets for sanctions.” Iran’s use of ghost fleets and Chinese refineries to boost oil revenues was highlighted as a destabilizing factor.

The Gaza conflict’s potential to inspire terrorism was a significant worry. Haynes warned, “It is likely that the Gaza conflict will have a generational impact on terrorism… Both al-Qaeda and ISIS, inspired by Hamas, have directed supporters to conduct attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests.” Senator Collins raised concerns about ISIS threats, with Haynes noting, “Most of the attacks… have actually occurred by parts of ISIS that are outside of Afghanistan.” Iran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas, as Haynes stated, “provide weapons, training, money to those groups,” further fueling regional instability. Burns addressed accusations of Israel’s actions, clarifying, “I understand Israel’s need to respond to the brutish attack… But we all also have to be mindful of the enormous toll that this has taken on innocent civilians in Gaza.”

The hearings emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to mitigate the crisis’s humanitarian and security impacts, with Burns advocating for a ceasefire to enable aid distribution and hostage releases. The intelligence community’s focus on monitoring Iran’s proxies and supporting sanctions enforcement reflects the challenge of balancing regional stability with counterterrorism efforts in a volatile landscape.

5. U.S. Border Security Challenges 

The U.S. southern border was a critical national security concern during the 2025 ATA hearings, with FBI Director Ray stating, “We are seeing a wide array of very dangerous threats that emanate from the border.” Fentanyl trafficking was a top priority, with Ray noting, “The FBI alone seized enough fentanyl in the last two years to kill 270 million people.” The hearings identified China as the primary source of fentanyl precursors, with Director Haynes stating, “China remains a primary source for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill press equipment.” Mexican cartels facilitate distribution, contributing to over 100,000 overdose deaths annually, with Senator Casey highlighting xylazine’s role in Philadelphia’s drug crisis.

Illegal migration posed another threat, with Senator Cornyn noting 1.8 million “gotaways” since 2021. Ray confirmed, “We don’t know what that 1.8 million is composed of,” raising concerns about undetected terrorists, with 169 watch list individuals detained in 2023 and 58 in the current year. Senator Rubio questioned smuggling networks, with Ray stating, “There is a particular network… where some of the overseas facilitators have ISIS ties that we’re very concerned about.” The hearings also addressed Chinese nationals’ activities, with 37,000 detained in 2023 and concerns about illegal marijuana operations in Maine, as Senator Collins noted: “Chinese nationals are establishing illegal marijuana growing operations… primarily in rural Maine.”

Resource constraints were a recurring theme. Ray highlighted a 10% cut to the terrorist screening center, stating, “There was a backlog… We asked in the 24 budget for enhancement. Not only did we not get an enhancement, there was a 10% cut.” Senator Kelly emphasized the failure of a bipartisan border security bill, which included resources for fentanyl detection and asylum reforms, stating, “The failure of that legislation alone presents a national security threat.” The intelligence community urged Congress to reauthorize programs like the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards and pass supplemental funding to address these vulnerabilities, ensuring robust tracking and enforcement to counter terrorism and drug trafficking.

6. Section 702: Balancing Security and Privacy 

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, set to expire on April 19, 2025, was a pivotal issue at the 2025 ATA hearings. Director Haynes emphasized its importance: “The intelligence gathered pursuant to section 702 was essential in preparing this annual threat assessment… providing unique insights into foreign intelligence targets such as Hamas, weapons proliferators, spies, malicious cyber actors, and fentanyl traffickers.” Contributing to 60% of the President’s Daily Brief, Section 702 enables agile responses to threats, as General Hawk noted: “If there’s a foreign entity communicating within the United States with a communications provider, it offers us an opportunity under section 702 to target that foreign intelligence threat.”

Privacy concerns, particularly U.S. person queries, sparked debate. Director Ray opposed a warrant requirement, stating, “A warrant requirement for us to run U.S. person queries would be untenable and would largely gut the effectiveness of the authority… It would blind us to information already lawfully in our possession.” He highlighted FBI reforms achieving 98-99% compliance, addressing past overzealous queries. Senator Wyden proposed a bipartisan reform requiring warrants for content searches, noting, “The government wouldn’t need a warrant to run searches on Americans to see who they’re talking to… only when the government wants to read the content.” Ray countered, “The fundamental problem is that in the instances where we need to look at the content, the probable cause is what’s established by seeing the content.”

The hearings also addressed commercially available data, with Senator Wyden questioning DIA’s purchase of U.S. location data. Director Kruse clarified, “The first thing we do is exclude all of the data that is within U.S. territory and is on U.S. citizens.” Haynes outlined a new framework: “We’ve developed a framework that augments each IC’s elements… with general principles and additional guidance on how IC elements should access, collect, process commercially available information.” The intelligence community supported reforms to enhance compliance while preserving Section 702’s agility, warning that its lapse would “critically damage our national security” in an era of escalating threats.

7. Conclusion 

The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment hearings, held on March 25 and 26, provided a comprehensive overview of the complex threats facing the United States, as articulated by the intelligence community’s top leaders. Director Ail Haynes summarized the challenge: “The United States faces an increasingly complex and interconnected threat environment characterized by three categories of challenges: strategic competition, transnational challenges, and regional conflicts.” These hearings underscored the urgency of addressing authoritarian powers’ efforts to undermine the rules-based order, the dual-use risks of emerging technologies, and the global implications of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside domestic vulnerabilities at the U.S. border.

China’s techno-authoritarian ambitions, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Iran’s proxy networks, and North Korea’s growing collaboration pose a unified threat to U.S. leadership. Director Burns warned, “The consequences of [walking away from Ukraine] are going to be felt not only by Ukrainians and in European security, but across the Indo-Pacific,” highlighting the need for supplemental aid to counter Putin’s strategy and deter China’s ambitions in Taiwan. The Gaza crisis, with its humanitarian toll, demands diplomatic solutions like the proposed ceasefire, as Burns noted: “The alternatives are worse for innocent civilians in Gaza… for the hostages and their families.” The intelligence community’s focus on countering AI-driven misinformation, cyber threats, and potential bioweapons reflects the evolving nature of national security, with General Hawk emphasizing NSA’s efforts to “illuminate that threat in a way that allows us to get unity of action.”

Domestically, the border’s role in facilitating fentanyl trafficking, illegal migration, and terrorism risks underscores the need for legislative action. Senator Kelly’s lament over the failed border security bill reflects a broader challenge: “The failure of that legislation alone presents a national security threat.” Section 702’s reauthorization is critical, as Haynes stated, “It does so at a speed and reliability that we simply cannot replace with any other authority.” Balancing security with privacy remains a priority, with reforms aimed at ensuring compliance without compromising agility. Chairman Warner’s call for the intelligence community to “keep speaking that truth to power” reinforces its role as a vital guide for policymakers, navigating a world where adversaries exploit asymmetries to challenge U.S. dominance. Sustained leadership, alliances, and investment in intelligence capabilities are essential to secure America’s future in this pivotal era.

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